지역기후모델들로 모의된 기온자료를 활용한 남한지역의 21세기 중반 기온변화 전망

Abstract

We projected the temperature changes in the mid-21st century with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 using the temperature data simulated by four regional climate models (RCMs: WRF, CCLM, MM5, RegCM4) in Korea. The simulation area and spatial resolution of RCMs were the CORDEXEA (COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia) area and 25 km, respectively. We defined the temperature change as the difference (ratio) between the average annual temperature (IAV: Interannual Variation) over the projected 25 years (2026-2050) and that over the present 25 years (1981-2005). The fact that the average annual temperature bias of the four RCMs is within ±2.5°C suggests that the RCM simulation level is reasonable in Korea. Across all RCMs, scenarios, and geographic locations, we observed increased temperatures (IAV) in the mid-21st century. In RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 1.27°C and 1.57°C will be increased by 2050, respectively. The ensemble suggests that the temperature increase is higher in winter (RCP4.5: 1.36°C, RCP8.5: 1.75°C) than summer (RCP4.5: 1.25°C, RCP8.5: 1.49°C). Central Korea exhibited a higher temperature increase than southern Korea. A slightly larger IAV is expected in the southeastern region than in the Midwest of Korea. IAV is also expected to increase significantly in RCP4.5 (summer) than in RCP8.5 (winter).