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Lee, Changyong
Technology and Innovation Management Lab
Research Interests
  • applied data mining and machine learning, technology and innovation management, service engineering

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Robust future-oriented technology portfolio: Black-Litterman approach

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Title
Robust future-oriented technology portfolio: Black-Litterman approach
Author
Shin, JuneseukCoh, Byoung-YoulLee, Changyong
Issue Date
2013-11
Publisher
WILEY-BLACKWELL
Citation
R & D MANAGEMENT, v.43, no.5, pp.409 - 419
Abstract
We propose a new way of constructing more robust technology portfolios to overcome the weaknesses of previous technology portfolios based either on the judgments of experts or on quantitative data such as patents. Instead of using historical data, the method of nonlinear forecasting enables us to forecast the future number of patent citations and accordingly, to use the forecast as a quantitative proxy for future returns and risks of technologies. Using the Black-Litterman portfolio model, we improve the accuracy of inputs by combining the future views of experts with the future returns and risks of technologies. As a consequence of this, the portfolio becomes strongly future-oriented. With our approach, corporate managers use both experts and data more effectively to build robust technology portfolios. In particular, our method is of great help for companies launching new businesses because the method avoids heavy dependency on internal experts with little knowledge about emerging technologies. A company entering the molecular amplification instrument market is exemplified herein.
URI
https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/9561
DOI
10.1111/radm.12022
ISSN
0033-6807
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SME_Journal Papers
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