Impact of global warming on precipitation extremes based on the design frequencies over South Korea

Abstract

Study region: South Korea (SK), East Asia Study focus: The increasing number and intensity of precipitation make South Korea highly vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, accurate predictions of future extreme events are essential for this region. In the present study, we demonstrate that the models have some significant biases in the projection of precipitation extremes and that the bias correction using quantile delta mapping resolves most of these issues. Additionally, the future projections of extreme precipitation are analyzed by using the generalized extreme value theory. New hydrological insights for the region: The present study demonstrates that the values associated with specific return periods are projected to increase, signifying intensification of precipitation and the higher likelihood of the extreme events occurring in the future. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to consider using forecasted future design frequencies instead of ones based on the historical record when planning the flood defenses and agricultural development.