Evacuation Strategy Optimization Based on Radiation Impact Assessment Using Forecast Weather Data

Abstract

Nuclear power plants are equipped with various safety systems that reduce the frequency ofaccidents, but the risk of radiation release still exists in the event of an accident. In the event of a radiationrelease accident, residents near the power plant are evacuated. This study proposes evacuation strategies tominimize radiation exposure. It compares and analyzes the dispersion of radioactive materials and theirimpact on the population under typical weather conditions and natural disasters like typhoons. Undertypical weather conditions, the Keyhole Strategy, based on the Puff model, is applied to establish real-timeevacuation zones according to the dispersion area of radioactive materials, demonstrating effectiveevacuation and reduced radiation exposure. In contrast, during extreme weather conditions such astyphoons, changes make evacuation challenging. In such cases, a strategy of sheltering indoors until thetyphoon passes, followed by evacuation, is more effective. This study highlights the potential of utilizing theprecision of weather forecasting models and the Puff model to optimize real-time radiation impactassessments and evacuation strategies.