A novel framework for inferring dynamic infectious disease transmission with graph attention: a COVID‑19 case study in Korea

Abstract

Introduction: Epidemic modeling is crucial for understanding and predicting infectious disease spread. To capture the complexity of real-world transmission, dynamic interactions between individuals with spatial heterogeneity must be considered. This modeling requires high-dimensional epidemic parameters, which can lead to unidentifiability; therefore, integrating various data types for inference is essential to effectively address these challenges. Methods: We introduce a novel hybrid framework, Multi-Patch Model Update with Graph Attention Network (MPUGAT), that combines a multi-patch compartmental model with a spatio-temporal deep learning model. MPUGAT employs a GAT (Graph Attention Mechanism) to transform static traffic matrices into dynamic transmission matrices by analyzing patterns in diverse time series data from each city. Results: We demonstrate the effectiveness of MPUGAT through its application to COVID-19 data from South Korea. By accurately estimating time-varying transmission rates, MPUGAT outperforms traditional models and aligns with actual policies such as social distancing. Conclusion: MPUGAT offers a novel approach for effectively integrating easily accessible, low-dimensional, non-epidemic-related data into epidemic modeling frameworks. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating dynamic data and utilizing graph attention mechanisms to enhance accuracy of infectious disease modeling and the analysis of policy interventions. This study underscores the potential of leveraging diverse data sources and advanced deep learning techniques to improve epidemic forecasting and inform public health strategies.