Dissatisfaction-considered waiting time prediction for outpatients with interpretable machine learning

Abstract

Long waiting time in outpatient departments is a crucial factor in patient dissatisfaction. We aim to analytically interpret the waiting times predicted by machine learning models and provide patients with an explanation of the expected waiting time. Here, underestimating waiting times can cause patient dissatisfaction, so preventing this in predictive models is necessary. To address this issue, we propose a framework considering dissatisfaction for estimating the waiting time in an outpatient department. In our framework, we leverage asymmetric loss functions to ensure robustness against underestimation. We also propose a dissatisfaction-aware asymmetric error score (DAES) to determine an appropriate model by considering the trade-off between underestimation and accuracy. Finally, Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) is applied to interpret the relationship trained by the model, enabling decision makers to use this information for improving outpatient service operations. We apply our framework in the endocrinology metabolism department and neurosurgery department in one of the largest hospitals in South Korea. The use of asymmetric functions prevents underestimation in the model, and with the proposed DAES, we can strike a balance in selecting the best model. By using SHAP, we can analytically interpret the waiting time in outpatient service (e.g., the length of the queue affects the waiting time the most) and provide explanations about the expected waiting time to patients. The proposed framework aids in improving operations, considering practical application in hospitals for real-time patient notification and minimizing patient dissatisfaction. Given the significance of managing hospital operations from the perspective of patients, this work is expected to contribute to operations improvement in health service practices. © The Author(s) 2024.