Assessing the risks of service failures based on ripple effects: A Bayesian network approach

Abstract

This study responds to the need for assessing risks of service failures by focusing on ripple effects. We propose a Bayesian network approach to assessing risks of service failures based on the depdendence relationships among individual service failures. To avoid conceptual misunderstanding and imprecise use in practice, the suggested approach is designed to be executed in three consecutive stages: modeling a Bayesian network; assessing the risks in terms of probabilities of service failures (PSFs) and impacts of service failures (ISFs); and developing a service failure assessment map. A case study of the outpatient consultation service is presented to show the feasibility of our method.