The difference in the uncertainty sources between future projections of mean and extreme precipitation over East Asia

Abstract

As the incidence of extreme precipitation events attributable to global climate change increases, providing policymakers with accurate model predictions is of the utmost importance. However, model projections have inherent uncertainties. The present study attempted to distinguish the sources of the uncertainty of the mean and extreme precipitation projections in the East Asia region using the mean boreal summer precipitation, simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), maximum cumulative 5 day precipitation, and annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1d). The results show that while the mean precipitation was projected to change very little regardless of the scenario, more extreme indices were projected to increase considerably by the end of the century, particularly in the high-emissions scenarios. On average, model uncertainty accounted for the largest part of the uncertainty. However, for Rx1d in the 2030s, as well as mean and SDII in some regions until the 2060s, the internal variability was the largest contributor. In addition, whilst scenario uncertainty accounted for a negligible proportion of average precipitation variability, for the more extreme the precipitation indices, scenario uncertainty contribution to total variability by the end of the century was significant; namely, the scenario uncertainty contribution was overall highest for the maximum one-day precipitation. Additionally, comparatively wetter regions had greater overall projection uncertainties, especially uncertainty arising from internal variability, likely due to the influence of interannual variability from the EA summer monsoon.