Exploring the exponential sensitivity of risk perception in the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Individual's risk perception regarding specific hazards is a dynamic process that evolves over time. This study analyzed the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and the South Korean public's risk perceptions from the outset of the pandemic to the recent past. More than 70 repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted biweekly to measure individuals' risk perception. An autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variable time series analysis was used to characterize the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and level of risk perceptions. It revealed that individuals' risk perception and the number of COVID-19 cases were not linearly related but were logarithmically correlated. This finding can be understood as a psychic numbing effect, suggesting that people's perception of risk is not linear but rather exponentially sensitive to changes. The findings also revealed a significant influence of individuals' trust in local governments on their risk perceptions, highlighting the substantial role played by local governments in direct risk management during the COVID-19 pandemic.