Future Changes in Photovoltaic Potential Using CORDEX-East Asia Phase II Multi-Regional Climate Models

Abstract

Highly industrialized East Asia, with its high greenhouse gas emissions, must inevitably increase renewable energy production to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Photovoltaics (PV), a widely utilized renewable energy source, is directly affected by the weather and climate. This study conducted a first analysis of current and future PV potential (PVpot) changes over East Asia using the ERA5 reanalysis and multiple high-resolution regional climate model simulations. The recent PVpot over East Asia did not exhibit any notable changes, but the future PVpot is predicted to decrease by −4.0 % (winter) to −1.6 % (summer) on average. It was found that the widespread increase in near-surface air temperature leads to the overall PVpot decrease (around −2.0 %) over East Asia across all seasons. Interestingly, surface down-welling shortwave radiation increases in summer, offsetting temperature-induced PVpot decreases (by about 0.7%) while it decreases in winter and spring, intensifying the warming-driven PVpot decrease (by about -1.4% to -2.3%). Further, the changes in the number of rainy days are found to be associated with the changing patterns of surface down-welling shortwave radiation, indicating t