Does Increasing Model Resolution Improve the Real-Time Forecasts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones?

Abstract

In this study, the general impact of high-resolution moving nesting domains on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and track forecasts was verified, for a total of 107 forecast cases of 33 TCs, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The experiment, with a coarse resolution of 12 km, could not significantly capture the intensification process, especially for maximum intensities (>60 m s(-1)). The intense TCs were better predicted by experiments using a moving nesting domain with a horizontal resolution of 4 km. The forecast errors for maximum wind speed and minimum sea-level pressure decreased in the experiment with higher resolution; the forecast of lifetime maximum intensity was improved. For the track forecast, the experiment with a coarser resolution tended to simulate TC tracks deviating rightward to the TC motions in the best-track data; this erroneous deflection was reduced in the experiment with a higher resolution. In particular, the track forecast in the experiment with a higher resolution improved more frequently for intense TCs that were generally distributed at relatively lower latitudes among the test cases. The sensitivity of the track forecast to the model resolution was relatively significant for lower-latitude TCs. On the other hand, the track forecasts of TCs moving to the mid-latitudes, which were primarily influenced by large-scale features, were not sensitive to the resolution.