Critical Role of Northern Off-Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature Forcing Associated with Central Pacific El Nino in More Frequent Tropical Cyclone Movements toward East Asia
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- Critical Role of Northern Off-Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature Forcing Associated with Central Pacific El Nino in More Frequent Tropical Cyclone Movements toward East Asia
- Jin, Chun-Sil; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Joo-Hong; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Yeh, Sang-Wook
- Coastal regions; East China Sea; Philippine seas; Regional climate models; Sea surface temperature (SST); Sea surface temperatures; Tropical cyclone; Weather research
- Issue Date
- AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
- JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, v.26, no.8, pp.2534 - 2545
- Observational records reveal that the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching East Asia in July-October is positively correlated with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial and northern off-equatorial central Pacific (CP) oceans, indicating the significant impact of CP El Nino (CP-EN). Through experiments using a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model-based regional climate model, this study demonstrates that it is northern off-equatorial CP warming, rather than equatorial CP warming, that effectively induces local anomalous steering flows pertinent to the observed increase in TC activity over East Asia during CP-EN. Sensitivity experiments, in which the prescribed CP-EN-related SST anomaly is confined near the equator, do not capture the observed TC increase over East Asia, whereas those including the off-equatorial region successfully reproduce observed atmospheric and TC variabilities. The off-equatorial CP SST anomaly acts to expand the anomalous cyclonic response in the Philippine Sea farther northward. This produces a tunnel effect in the East China Sea, by which more TCs move to East Asian coastal regions (e.g., east China, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan).
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