BROWSE

Related Researcher

Author's Photo

Lee, Myong-In
Climate-Environment Modeling Lab
Research Interests
  • Climate Change, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Weather, Aerosol

ITEM VIEW & DOWNLOAD

Representation of Boreal Winter MJO and Its Teleconnection in a Dynamical Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System

Cited 0 times inthomson ciCited 0 times inthomson ci
Title
Representation of Boreal Winter MJO and Its Teleconnection in a Dynamical Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System
Author
Kim, HyerimLee, Myong-InKim, DaehyunKang, Hyun-SukHyun, Yu-Kyung
Issue Date
2018-11
Publisher
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Citation
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, v.31, no.21, pp.8803 - 8818
Abstract
This study examines the representation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and its teleconnection in boreal winter in the Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), using 20 years (1991-2010) of hindcast data. The sensitivity of the performance to the polarity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also investigated. The real-time multivariate MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon is used to assess MJO prediction skill while intraseasonal 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies are used to evaluate the MJO teleconnection. GloSea5 exhibits significant MJO prediction skill up to 25 days of forecast lead time. MJO prediction skill in GloSea5 also depends on initial MJO phases, with relatively enhanced (degraded) performance when the initial MJO phase is 2 or 3 (8 or 1) during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast period. GloSea5 depicts the observed MJO teleconnection patterns in the extratropics realistically up to 2 weeks albeit weaker than the observed. The ENSO-associated basic-state changes in the tropics and in the midlatitudes are reasonably represented in GloSea5. MJO prediction skill during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast is slightly higher in neutral and La Nina years than in El Nino years, especially in the upper-level zonal wind anomalies. Presumably because of the better representation of MJO-related tropical heating anomalies, the Northern Hemispheric MJO teleconnection patterns in neutral and La Nina years are considerably better than those in El Nino years.
URI
https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/25186
URL
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0039.1
DOI
10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0039.1
ISSN
0894-8755
Appears in Collections:
UEE_Journal Papers
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.

find_unist can give you direct access to the published full text of this article. (UNISTARs only)

Show full item record

qrcode

  • mendeley

    citeulike

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

MENU