Economic evaluation with uncertainty analysis using a Monte-Carlo simulation method for hydrogen production from high pressure PEM water electrolysis in Korea

Abstract

Economic analysis with uncertainty analysis based on a Monte-Carlo simulation method was performed for hydrogen production from high pressure PEM water electrolysis targeting a hydrogen production capacity of 30 Nm(3) h(-1) in Korea. With key economic parameters obtained from sensitivity analysis (SA), a cumulative probability curve was constructed for a unit H-2 production cost fully reflecting unpredictable price fluctuations in H-2 production equipment, construction, electricity, and labor from +/- 10% to +/- 50%. In addition, economic analysis for a net present value (NPV) with uncertainty analysis for revenue (REV), fixed capital investment (FCI), and cost of manufacturing (COM) provided cumulative probability curves with different discount rates and more reliable NPVs (-$ 69,000 similar to$1,308,000) for high pressure PEM water electrolysis under development in Korea. This economic analysis based on uncertainty can serve as important economic indicators suitable for premature technology like high pressure PEM water electrolysis currently being in progress in Korea.