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Lee, Chang Hyeong
Stochastic Analysis & Simulation(SAS) Lab
Research Interests
  • Stochastic analysis/computation, epidemic modeling, biological system simulation

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Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea

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Title
Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea
Author
Lee, HyojungKim, Jung EunLee, SunmiLee, Chang Hyeong
Issue Date
2018-06
Publisher
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
Citation
PLOS ONE, v.13, no.6, pp.e0199205
Abstract
Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of dengue outbreaks by means of the vector capacity and intensity under various RCP scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of the temperature-dependent parameters is performed to explore the effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. Our results demonstrate that a higher temperature significantly enhances the potential threat of domestic dengue outbreaks in Korea. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of countermeasures on the cumulative incidence of humans and vectors. The current main control measures (comprising only travel restrictions) for infected humans in Korea are not as effective as combined control measures (travel restrictions and vector control), dramatically reducing the possibilities of dengue outbreaks.
URI
https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/24181
URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199205
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0199205
ISSN
1932-6203
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