Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality

Abstract

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics and seasonal forcing in the transmission rates. We investigate the effects of human movement and seasonality on the two-patch dengue transmission dynamics. Motivated by the recent Peruvian dengue data in jungle/rural areas and coast/urban areas, our model mimics the seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks in two patches. The roles of seasonality and residence-time configurations are highlighted in terms of the seasonal reproduction number and cumulative incidence. Moreover, optimal control theory is employed to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in the presence of seasonality. Our findings demonstrate that optimal patch-specific control strategies are sensitive to seasonality and residence-time scenarios. Targeting only the jungle (or endemic) is as effective as controlling both patches under weak coupling or symmetric mobility. However, focusing on intervention for the city (or high density areas) turns out to be optimal when two patches are strongly coupled with asymmetric mobility.