Technology trajectory mapping using data envelopment analysis: the ex ante use of disruptive innovation theory on flat panel technologies

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a technology trajectory mapping approach using data envelopment analysis (DEA) that can scrutinize technology progress patterns from multidimensional perspectives. Literature reviews on technology trajectory mappings have revealed that it is imperative to identify key performance measures that can represent different value propositions and then apply them to the investigation of technology systems in order to capture indications of the future disruption. The proposed approach provides a flexibility not only to take multiple characteristics of technology systems into account, but also to deal with various trade-offs among technology attributes by imposing weight restrictions in the DEA model. The application of this approach to the flat panel technologies is provided to give a strategic insight for the players involved.