Carbon neutrality timing controls future tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation over the western North Pacific

Abstract

This study examines how different global warming levels associated with near-future carbon neutrality timings influence future tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific, using a pseudo-global warming framework. Convection-permitting simulations of multiple landfalling tropical cyclones were performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, corresponding to net-zero emissions in the 2050 s and 2070 s, respectively. Delayed attainment of net-zero emissions leads to more substantial intensification, with the area affected by strong winds expanding by 7% and 9%, and regions of heavy precipitation by 15% and 22%, under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, respectively. These differential responses are driven primarily by thermodynamic changes (atmospheric moisture increase) and also contributed by dynamic changes (enhanced vertical motion). The results underscore that the timing of carbon neutrality is a critical determinant of the severity of landfalling tropical cyclone impacts.