Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia

Abstract

As global warming intensifies, the frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures are expected to increase. This will impact the production of photovoltaics (PVs), which are increasingly adopted as an effective alternative to replace fossil fuel-based energy sources and reduce CO2 emissions. Furthermore, extremely high temperature days account for a considerable proportion of days with high PV power potential (PVpot). Therefore, this study investigates changes in PVpot on future extremely high temperature days over East Asia, a region with high greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to extreme climatic events. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was estimated to decrease across all scenarios and future periods. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was predicted to decrease more substantially toward the late 21st century, with a larger magnitude of decrease expected under the high-carbon emissions scenario compared to the low-carbon emissions scenario. By the mid-and late 21st century, PVpot for extremely high temperature days was projected to decrease in PV hotspot areas, particularly in the regions of northern China and southern Mongolia, by up to - 7.2 %. The signs of PVpot projections vary across sub-regions under summer mean conditions, while on extremely high temperature days, PVpot is consistently expected to decrease in all regions. This suggests that extremely high temperatures further intensify the decrease in PVpot. Moreover, under extremely high-temperature conditions, near-surface air temperature has been identified as the primary driver of projected decreases in PVpot among the climate variables considered; its influence is expected to intensify over time, thereby accelerating PVpot decreases under the high-carbon emissions scenario. Based on the findings, this study is expected to provide new insights for the development of renewable energy policies in a future where extremely high temperatures are projected to increase.