The directionality effect in the seismic risk assessment of highway networks

Abstract

This study introduces the directionality effect of the ground motion in the probabilistic seismic risk assessment (PSRA) of lifeline systems. Given an earthquake scenario, the seismic wave strikes each component of the system with a different angle. The angle may vary significantly depending on the shape, the location and the orientation of the structure. An appropriate example of a lifeline system is a highway transportation network, in which under earthquake conditions the bridges are considered the most vulnerable components. The proposed PSRA model requires that the seismic fragility model is a function of a ground motion intensity measure (IM), as in the traditional risk analysis, and the angle of seismic incidence. The model was implemented in a new framework for the PSRA of highway transportation network. In addition, the framework includes new algorithms. One reduces the confidence interval of the results and one increases the computational efficiency. The example used is the highway transportation network serving the Los Angeles area, which has more than 3000 bridges. The results show a considerable difference in the system resilience with or without the seismic directionality taken into consideration. This is important for benefit/cost analysis and it represents a clear departure from the current risk analysis.