Tropical cyclone intensity estimation through convolutional neural network transfer learning using two geostationary satellite datasets

Abstract

Accurate prediction and monitoring of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are crucial for saving lives, mitigating damages, and improving disaster response measures. In this study, we used a convolutional neural network (CNN) model to estimate TC intensity in the western North Pacific using Geo-KOMPSAT-2A (GK2A) satellite data. Given that the GK2A data cover only the period since 2019, we applied transfer learning to the model using information learned from previous Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) data, which cover a considerably longer period (2011-2019). Transfer learning is a powerful technique that can improve the performance of a model even if the target task is based on a small amount of data. Experiments with various transfer learning methods using the GK2A and COMS data showed that the frozen-fine-tuning method had the best performance due to the high similarity between the two datasets. The test results for 2021 showed that employing transfer learning led to a 20% reduction in the root mean square error (RMSE) compared to models using only GK2A data. For the operational model, which additionally used TC images and intensities from 6 h earlier, transfer learning reduced the RMSE by 5.5%. These results suggest that transfer learning may represent a new breakthrough in geostationary satellite image-based TC intensity estimation, for which continuous long-term data are not always available.