Post-hazard performance estimation of bridge transportation networks considering earthquake uncertainty

Abstract

For effective disaster risk management of a bridge transportation network, it is important to estimate its post-hazard performance accurately. This study proposes a new probabilistic method of system-level post-hazard performance estimation for bridge transportation networks, which consists of three steps: 1) seismic fragility estimation of the component bridges based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); 2) system-level performance estimation of the transportation network using the matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method; and 3) seismic risk assessment employing the total probability theorem. The proposed method provides statistical moments of the network performance and component importance measures, and the method is demonstrated through its application to an actual transportation network in South Korea.