Mathematical modeling and computation of dengue fever caused by climate change in Jeju Island

Abstract

Dengue fever which is a vector-borne infectious disease that spreads rapidly in subtropical or tropical countries is rarely recognized as a public health concern in South Korea, especially Jeju Island which is target district for study. However, there is a high possibility that the outbreak of dengue fever occurs in Korea within a few years since global warming is accelerating and the medium mosquitoes for dengue are also inhabit in Korea. The purpose of this study is predicting how many patients would occur when there is an outbreak of dengue fever by using climate change scenario. Based on RCPs provided by Korea Meterological Administration, the parameters related to mosquitoes represented as fitting functions and specific function by using climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity are formulated. The simulation for deterministic models is performed by using two methods, one of applying climate data of all the four seasons, and the other applying climate data of seasons excluding winter. This study show the relation between climate change and outbreaks of dengue, which could be an important indicator to establish polices to reduce spread of the disease.