Finding the most suitable vehicle type for projected years using analytic hierarchy process integrated with economic and environmental aspects

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic and environmental feasibility of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV), and internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and determines which vehicles will be a more appropriate choice in the current and projected years (2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040) by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Economic feasibility was calculated by estimating the total cost of ownership (TCO) during seven years of ownership period and introducing the experience curve effect to analyze the future behavior of the purchase price according to technological development. FCEV and BEV show a continuous decrease in TCO, while ICEV shows a continuous increase, resulting in TCO values as FCEV of 35,700 USD, BEV of 34,980 USD, and ICEV of 53,300 USD in 2040. The environmental analysis is implemented by the well-to wheel (WTW) analysis, which measures greenhouse gases emitted during the production of energy source (well-to-tank), production of cars, and driving processes (tank-to-wheel). ICEV showed the highest emissions overall processes while FCEV showed the lowest emissions overall processes in all periods. The results from the TCO and WTW analyses are used in AHP that can integrate both aspects, and 1,500 pairs of weights are randomly assigned to economic and environmental criteria to measure their priorities. As a result, from 2030, all the priorities of FCEV and BEV became higher than those of ICEV, and the gap between them has widened, indicating that FCEV and BEV are more economically and environmentally suitable than ICEV.