Characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific related to extreme ENSO and a climate regime shift in sub-seasonal forecasting with GloSea5

Abstract

The characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in sub-seasonal forecasting with the Global Seasonal Forecast System 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were assessed for June-September (JJAS) from 1991 to 2010 over the western North Pacific (WNP). The performance of GloSea5 was examined for its ability to reproduce observed TC climatology as well as changes in TC genesis with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a 1998/1999 climate regime shift (e.g., frequency, genesis spatial distribution). GloSea5 showed skillful performance in predicting the frequency and genesis spatial distribution of TCs in climatology and both ENSO phases; this performance was best during periods of La Nina. Environmental fields related to TC genesis (e.g., sea surface temperature [SST], vertical wind shear [VWS], 850-hPa wind and relative vorticity) were also reasonably captured, despite some systematic biases in SST, low-level circulation, relative vorticity, and VWS. GloSea5 performed well in terms of characteristic of changes in TC genesis before and after the regime shift. However, there were biases in TC frequency before the regime shift and changes in TC-related environmental fields. Our results imply that GloSea5 with a high predictive skill for TC genesis over the WNP can be used as an operational model for sub-seasonal TC forecasting, although it requires continuous improvements to reduce systematic errors.