Development of Mid-range Forecast Models of Forest Fire Risk Using Machine Learning
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- Development of Mid-range Forecast Models of Forest Fire Risk Using Machine Learning
- Other Titles
- 기계학습 기반의 산불위험 중기예보 모델 개발
- Park, Sumin; Son, Bokyung; Im, Jungho; Kang, Yoojin; Kwon, Chungeun; Kim, Sungyong
- Issue Date
- Korean Journal of Remote Sensing, v.38, no.5, pp.781 - 791
- It is crucial to provide forest fire risk forecast information to minimize forest fire-related losses. In this research, forecast models of forest fire risk at a mid-range (with lead times up to 7 days) scale were developed considering past, present and future conditions (i.e., forest fire risk, drought, and weather) through random forest machine learning over South Korea. The models were developed using weather forecast data from the Global Data Assessment and Prediction System, historical and current Fire Risk Index (FRI) information, and environmental factors (i.e., elevation, forest fire hazard index, and drought index). Three schemes were examined: scheme 1 using historical values of FRI and drought index, scheme 2 using historical values of FRI only, and scheme 3 using the temporal patterns of FRI and drought index. The models showed high accuracy (Pearson correlation coefficient >0.8, relative root mean square error <10%), regardless of the lead times, resulting in a good agreement with actual forest fire events. The use of the historical FRI itself as an input variable rather than the trend of the historical FRI produced more accurate results, regardless of the drought index used.
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- UEE_Journal Papers
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