Hierarchical deep learning model to simulate phytoplankton at phylum/ class and genus levels and zooplankton at the genus level

Abstract

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have become a global issue, affecting public health and water industries in numerous countries. Because funds for monitoring HABs are limited, model development may be an alternative approach for understanding and managing HABs. Continuous monitoring based on grab sampling is timeconsuming, costly, and labor-intensive. However, improving simulation performance remains a major challenge in modeling, and current methods are limited to simulating phytoplankton (e.g., Microcystis sp., Anabaena sp., Aulacoseira sp., Cyclotella sp., Pediastrum sp., and Eudorina sp.) and zooplankton (e.g., Cyclotella sp., Pediastrum sp., and Eudorina sp.) at the genus level. The traditional modeling approach is limited for evaluating the interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton. Recently, deep learning (DL) models have been proposed for solving modeling problems because of their large data handling capabilities and model structure flexibilities. In this study, we evaluated the applicability of DL for simulating phytoplankton at the phylum/class and genus levels and zooplankton at the genus level. Our work was an explicit representation of the taxonomic and ecological hierarchy of the DL model structure. The prerequisite for this model design was the data collection at two taxonomic and hierarchical levels. Our model consisted of hierarchical DL with classification transformer (TF) and regression TF models. These DL models were hierarchically connected; the output of the phylum/class level model was transferred to the genus level simulation model, and the output of the genus level model was fed into the zooplankton simulation model. The classification TF model determined the phytoplankton occurrence initiation date, whereas the regression TF model quantified the cell concentration of plankton. The hierarchical DL showed potential to simulate phytoplankton at the phylum/class and genus levels by producing average R2, and root mean standard error values of 0.42 and 0.83 [log(cells mL-1)], respectively. All simulated plankton results closely matched the measured concentrations. Particularly, the simulated cyanobacteria showed good agreement with the measured cell concentration, with an R2 value of 0.72. In addition, our simulated result showed good agreement in peak concentration compared to observations. However, a limitation remained in following the temporal variation of Tintinnopsis sp. and Bosmia sp. Using an importance map from the TF model, water temperature, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen were identified as significant variables influencing phytoplankton and zooplankton blooms. Overall, our study demonstrated that DL can be used for modeling HABs at the phylum/class and genus levels.