수도권 여름철 집중호우 장기변동성

Abstract

The long-term variability of summer heavy rainfall in the Seoul metropolitan area was investigated in this study for the period of 1970-2018. The study period was divided into two phases; first phase from 1970 to 1994 and the second phase was 1995 to 2018. Long-term variability of summer heavy rainfall was examined using the change-point analysis method. Annual mean heavy rainfall amounts showed increasing trends in Seoul and Incheon during summer monsoon season (June to August). Results revealed that the changes in frequency and amount of heavy rainfall were observed larger in the months of July and August as compare to June during the second phase. The upper-level trough was prominently developed at the west of the Seoul metropolitan area and the core region of the upper-level jet was shifted to the east of the area during second phase. The western North Pacific subtropical high was expanded westward and moisture flux flowed along the southwesterly wind, resultant increasing moisture supply. The temperature and humidity tended to increase recently at the lower and mid-levels