The Köppen-Trewartha climate-type changes over the CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2 domain under 2 and 3°C global warming

Abstract

For the comprehensive estimation of regional climate change over East Asia (EA) at the 2 and 3 degrees C global warming levels (GWLs), the Koppen-Trewartha climate-type change is assessed with ensemble regional climate change projections in line with Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-EA phase 2. Under the 2 degrees C (3 degrees C) GWL, 17.6% (25.2%) of the EA region is expected to undergo major climate-type changes. Tropical and subtropical climate types will expand northward, accompanied by increasing hydroclimatic intensity. Limiting GWL to 2 degrees C shows benefits by preventing subtropical-type expansion around far EA. Desertification over inland regions of EA exhibits scenario dependency. Boreal and tundra climate types over high-latitude regions will tend to decrease rapidly, especially over the Tibetan Plateau. The results are expected to be a baseline assessment of climate change over EA under the 2 and 3 degrees C GWLs above the preindustrial level.