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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.citation.endPage | 529 | - |
dc.citation.number | 2 | - |
dc.citation.startPage | 511 | - |
dc.citation.title | JOURNAL OF INFORMETRICS | - |
dc.citation.volume | 11 | - |
dc.contributor.author | Jang, Hyunjin | - |
dc.contributor.author | Woo, Hangyun | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lee, Changyong | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-12-21T22:16:27Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-12-21T22:16:27Z | - |
dc.date.created | 2017-03-23 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2017-05 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Patent citation analysis is considered a useful tool for technology impact analysis. However, the outcomes of previous methods do not provide a fair reflection of a technology's future prospects since they are based on deterministic approaches, assuming that future trends will remain the same as those in the past. As a remedy, we propose a Hawkes process-based patent citation analysis method to assess the future technological impact and uncertainty of a technology in a time period of interest by employing the future citation counts of the relevant patents as a quantitative proxy. For this, we construct a citation interval matrix from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) database, and employ a Hawkes process a special case of path-dependent stochastic processes - as a method for patent citation forecasting. Specifically, the Hawkes process models the idiosyncratic and dynamic behaviours of a technology's evolution and obsolescence by increasing the likelihood of another subsequent citation by oneself (i.e., self-excitation) and decaying the likelihood back towards the initial level naturally. A case study of the patents about molecular amplification diagnosis technology shows that our method outperforms previous deterministic approaches in terms of accuracy and practicality. | - |
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation | JOURNAL OF INFORMETRICS, v.11, no.2, pp.511 - 529 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.joi.2017.03.007 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1751-1577 | - |
dc.identifier.scopusid | 2-s2.0-85016482914 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://scholarworks.unist.ac.kr/handle/201301/21863 | - |
dc.identifier.url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1751157716303169 | - |
dc.identifier.wosid | 000403857200012 | - |
dc.language | 영어 | - |
dc.publisher | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV | - |
dc.title | Hawkes process-based technology impact analysis | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.description.isOpenAccess | FALSE | - |
dc.relation.journalWebOfScienceCategory | Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications; Information Science & Library Science | - |
dc.relation.journalResearchArea | Computer Science; Information Science & Library Science | - |
dc.description.journalRegisteredClass | scie | - |
dc.description.journalRegisteredClass | ssci | - |
dc.description.journalRegisteredClass | scopus | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Technology impact analysis | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Hawkes processes | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Future technological impact and uncertainty | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Technology evolution and obsolescence | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Patent citation forecasting | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | EXCITING POINT-PROCESSES | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | CITATION DISTRIBUTION | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | PATENT QUALITY | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | INDICATORS | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | OBSOLESCENCE | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | SCIENCE | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | PRODUCTIVITY | - |
dc.subject.keywordPlus | INFORMATION | - |
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