Projections of suitable cultivation area for major fruit trees and climate-type in South Korea under representative concentration pathway scenarios using the ensemble of high-resolution regional climate models

Abstract

This study projected the future changes in the climate-type distribution in South Korea according to the Koppen-Trewartha climate classification (KTCC) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5/8.5 scenarios and the future change of cultivation area of apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) and mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.), which are major fruit crops in South Korea, using five regional climate models with a 12.5 km horizontal resolution. According to KTCC, type temperate (D)s is dominant in most of South Korea during the reference period (1981-2005). On the other hand, it is projected that the area of Type D and Type subtropical (C) will decrease and increase, respectively, towards higher latitudes and elevations in the future under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios. Accordingly, the cultivation areas of major fruit crops in South Korea are projected to change significantly. The cultivation area of apple (mandarin), which is a major current fruit crop in Type D (C), is projected to be reduced (expanded) as it moves towards higher latitudes and elevations in the future. Apples grown throughout South Korea in the present climate (reference period) are not expected to be cultivated in the late-21C due to climate change. On the other hand, the cultivation area of mandarins is projected to increase steadily in the future. At present, mandarins are cultivated only in Jeju Island, which is located in the south of the South Korea. However, the cultivation area is expected to increase by 1323% in late-21C under the RCP8.5 scenario compared to the reference period. Moreover, mandarin cultivation is projected to be possible anywhere in South Korea. Nevertheless, in late-21C, excessive increases in temperature that exceeds the appropriate temperature for mandarin in Jeju Island and the southern part of South Korea will eventually decrease the cultivation area of mandarins.