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Author

Lee, Changyong
Technology and Innovation Management Lab
Research Interests
  • applied data mining and machine learning, technology and innovation management, service engineering

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An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans

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Title
An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans
Author
Lee, ChangyongSong, BomiPark, Yongtae
Keywords
Bayesian network; Future changes; Ripple impacts; Scenario-based technology roadmapping; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty
Issue Date
201501
Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Citation
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, v.90, no.PA, pp.285 - 301
Abstract
Scenario-based technology roadmapping offers a strong capability for strategic planning to respond to increasingly volatile environments. However, previous studies cannot guide organisations towards making robust decisions against complex future conditions since they remain conceptual and rely solely on graphical mapping tools. To counter this, we propose a systematic approach to making scenario-based technology roadmapping more robust by adding the ability to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans. At the heart of the suggested approach is a Bayesian network that can examine uncertainty inherent in future changes and ripple impacts resulting from interdependence among activities. The proposed approach is designed to be executed in three discrete steps: defining a roadmap topology and causal relationships via qualitative and quantitative modelling; assessing the impacts of future changes on organisational plans via current state analysis and sensitivity analysis; and finally managing plans and activities via development of plan assessment map and activity assessment map. A case study of photovoltaic cell technology is presented to show the feasibility of our method. We believe the systematic process and quantitative outcomes the suggested approach offers can facilitate responsive technology planning in the face of future uncertainties.
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DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.020
ISSN
0040-1625
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