Economic evaluation with uncertainty analysis of glycerol steam reforming for a H2 production capacity of 300 m3 h-1

Abstract

In this paper, an economic evaluation with the uncertainty analysis using a Monte-Carlo simulation method was performed for the glycerol steam reforming to produce H2 at a capacity of 300 m3 h-1. Fluctuations in a unit H2 production cost were identified based on the variation of key economic factors at ± 10 - ± 40% and the probability of 30.9% was obtained for a previously reported unit H2 production cost of 5.10 $ kgH2 -1. In addition, fluctuations in the B/C ratio were obtained by varying the fixed capital investment (± 20%), cost of manufacturing (± 20%), revenue (± 20%), and discount rate (2-10%) and the probability ranging from 17 to 55% was observed to meet a minimum B/C ratio of 1 for the economic feasibility of the glycerol steam reforming to produce H2.