Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Discrete Faults in Northwestern Pakistan: Part II - Results of Seismic Hazard Analysis

Abstract

This article is the second of two companion articles that evaluate seismic hazard in northwestern (NW) Pakistan. Using the properties and characteristics of discrete faults in NW Pakistan described in the first article, probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses for 11 major cities in NW Pakistan were conducted. The results from both probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses exhibit good agreement. Median deterministic spectra compare favorably with uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for 475- or 975-year return periods, while the 84th-percentile deterministic spectra compare favorably with the UHS for a 2475-year return period. Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) for 2475-year return periods exceed 1.0 g for the cities of Kaghan and Muzaffarabad, which are surrounded by major faults. The PGAs for a 475-year return period for these cities are approximately 0.6g - 3 to 4 times greater than estimates by previous studies using diffuse areal source zones. The PGAs for some cities located farther from faults (including Astor, Malakand, Mangla, Peshawar, and Talagang) are similar to those predicted using diffuse areal source zones. Seismic hazard maps for PGA and spectral accelerations at periods of 0.2 s and 1.0 s corresponding to three return period (2475, 975, and 475 years) were produced. Based on deaggregation results, a discussion of the conditional mean spectra for engineering applications is presented.