Simulating mesoscale transport and diffusion of radioactive noble gases using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model

Abstract

In order to simulate the impact of mesoscale wind fields and to assess potential capability of atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) as an emergency response model for the decision supports, two different simulations of LPDM with the mesoscale prognostic model MM5 (Mesoscale Model ver. 5) were driven. The first simulation of radioactive noble gas (Kr-85 exponent) emitted during JCO accident occurred from 30 September to 3 October 1999 at Tokai, Japan showed that the first arriving short pulse was found in Tsukuba located at 60 km away from the accidental area. However, the released radioactive noble gas was transported back to the origin site about 2 days later due to the mesoscale meteorological wind circulation, enhancing the levels of Kr-85 with the secondary peak in Tsukuba. The second simulation of atmospheric dilution factors (the ratio of concentration to the emission rate, chi/Q), during the underground nuclear test (UNT) performed by North Korea showed that high chi/Q moved to the eastward and extended toward southward in accordance with the mesoscale atmospheric circulations generated by mesoscale prognostic model MM5. In comparison with the measurements, the simulated horizontal distribution patterns of Kr-85 during the JCO are well accord with that of observation in Tsukuba such as the existence of secondary peak which is associated with the mesoscale circulations. However, the simulated level of Kr-85 anomaly was found to be significantly lower than the observations, and some interpretations on these discrepancies were described. Applications of LPDM to two mesoscale emergency response dispersion cases suggest the potential capability of LPDM to be used as a decision support model provided accurate emission rate of accident in case of a large accident.